Casual gentleman style 2018

With the football league season starting last night I thought it was time I put myself on the line and post my football outright bets of the season. I thought it was a bit much to call them tips, as I am far from a tipster, but I thought I would share my selections and then see how I get on at the end next year.

So here goes.

Premier League

It’s hard not to see past Man City retaining their title. I know there are plenty examples of “2nd season syndrome” and teams completely dropping off (just look at Chelsea) but City were so dominant last year and Guardiola is such a perfectionist I can see them being just as good this year.

But I do think they’ll be run close, hopefully by my beloved casual gentleman style 2018 Liverpool. I also expect Man Utd to do ok again this year despite all the negativity around them and Chelsea will also surely improve. There is no value in City, so it might be worth looking at a forecast of 1. City 2. Liverpool. You can get about 3/1 on that.

My Selections:

Man City to win the PL.

Forecast – Man City / Liverpool

Premier League Relegation 

I made a little bit of money on Huddersfield staying up last year, but they were pretty awful throughout their campaign and with the quality of the sides coming up from the Championship I can see them really struggling this year. Cardiff are also an obvious choice to go down, although Warnock will make them horrible to play against. I also think Bournemouth could have a poor season.

But when looking for a bit of value I might go for Newcastle. Because of Benitez they are about 5/1 at the moment and if he stays all season they might be ok. But even with him they struggled at times last year and the squad hasn’t been strengthened. As ever, tensions are high between Ashley and Rafa and as much as I don’t think Rafa wants to go, I can see him having enough and leaving before the end of the season. In which case it could all fall apart and I could see them going down. So I would get in now when there is a bit of value and see what happens.

My Selections: 

Newcastle and Huddersfield to go down (singles)

Treble – Cardiff, Huddersfield and Bournemouth.

Premier League – Top Scorer

Obviously Harry Kane is the favourite, but I don’t think he is necessarily a sure thing. Although there is no reason for Spurs to not continue where they left off last year I just think that they might start to fade after years of doing so well. Plus who knows how much the World Cup took out of Kane? With that in mind, I would look at some EW shouts. I am going to show my Liverpool bias and suggest that Firmino could have the season of his life and be there or there abouts. He is 28/1 in most places! Sterling is also a great EW shout at 50/1 – people will probably scoff, but he had a great season last year and I can see that continuing. He could sneak in to the Top 4 if some of the big guns don’t fire.

My Selections: 

Firmino EW

Sterling EW

The Championship

The Championship is such a wonderful, competitive league, trying to pick an outright winner is so hard. However, I’m not as confident as some that the teams that have come down will do all that well. A lot of money is being thrown about, but sometimes it is hard to get out of the malaise that a relegation season brings. I’d rather pluck for a solid side who did well last year and with that in mind I think Middlesbrough might go all the way this time, they’re about 17/2

I also think Forrest might do well this season, they have spent a lot, so maybe it’s finally their time again?

My Selections: 

Middlesbrough outright winners.

Forrest to get promoted.

League 1 & League 2

I don’t have any confidence in my knowledge of League 1 and 2, despite keeping a close eye on Bristol Rovers, my Dad’s boyhood club. All the talk is that Sunderland will go straight back up from League 1 of  course and I’d like to see Barnsley do the same. The big boys will all be there or there abouts I would have thought, but maybe the likes of Oxford might surprise a few people. I’m afraid I don’t see

In League 2 I’m struggling even more, but I am going to put my neck out and say that Tisdale won’t do as well as people think out of his comfort zone in Milton Keynes, so I might go for Notts County to win it. It’s about time my mate’s Swindon Town had a bit luck, so hopefully they will push for promotion and the play-offs.

My Selections: 

Barnsley Outright – League 1 (8/1)

Oxford to make the play-offs – League 1 (4/1)

Notts County Outright – League 2 (6/1)

Swindon to make the play-offs – League 2 (10/3)

 

Please note these are purely my thoughts on the season ahead and by no means tips. If you are going to gamble, please gamble responsible and only bet what you can afford to lose. Be Gamble Aware. 


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